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Analysis of
Stocks There are 2 primary ways
in which people look at companies to evaluate which ones
would be good ones to invest
in. Fundamental Analysis
revolves around studying a company’s earnings history,
balance sheet, management, product line and other
factors that affect the Company’s profitability and
growth to be able to decide which Companies look good
for investment. Fundamental analysts search for
intrinsic value of the company and hence the stock. In
short Fundamental Analysis is based on Business
Fundamentals studied through the Company’s Books of
Accounts. Usually Fundamental Analysts tend to be Long
Term investors. Technical Analysis is
stock analysis that seeks to detect and interpret
patterns in past prices to be able to predict future
movements.
Technical analysis dwells on
charts of stock price movements and trading volume, as opposed
to a company's business, earnings, and competition. Investors
who use technical analysis focus on the psychology of the
market, scrutinizing investor behaviour. They try to determine
where the big, institutional money is going so they can put
their cash in the same places. Technical Analysis does not
have too much meaning in the long run and is hence used in
Medium term and Short Term investments.
ANALYSIS
TERMS:
We have explained some of the terms most
widely used in Fundamental and Technical Analysis of shares.
The attempt is to make sure that you are aware of what these
are, understand what analysts are saying when they are
discussing any particular company, and slowly begin to put
your learning to use to do some analysis and predictions of
your own. The terms discussed in this chapter will cover only
the basics, discussing Fundamental and Technical Analysis
would be beyond the scope of this book – apart from being an
Information overload at this point J
EPS (Earnings
Per Share)
One of the most important indicators
about how a company is doing is to check for its Earnings Per
Share (EPS). It is defined as the Net earning of the company
(Profit After Tax) divided by the number of shares of the
company. So, hypothetically, if a company made a Profit of
Rs.100 for a year, and the company had 20 shares, the EPS
would be Rs.5/share – So if you watch where a company’s EPS is
and compare it to previous year’s EPS, you should get an idea
of how well the company is growing. It is important to keep in
mind while making this comparison that the company might have
allocated additional shares in between, in which case these
shares would need to be considered in the
calculation.
EPS can be calculated for the
previous year ("trailing EPS"), for the current year ("current
EPS"), or for the coming year ("forward EPS"). Note that last
year's EPS would be actual, while current year and forward
year EPS would be estimates.
P/E
(Price to Earnings) Ratio
The Price Earnings Ratio of a share is the
ratio of its Market Value (currently traded market price) to
its Earnings Per Share (EPS). To extrapolate on the previous
example, if the same share with the EPS of Rs. 5/share had a
market value of Rs. 50, it would be said to have a P/E = 50/10
= 10.
Just to set the perspective, at the time of
writing this book, all the shares trading on the Indian Stock
Exchange together have an average P/E of 14-15. However, this
is not constant across all sectors. E.g. most companies in the
Metal Sector are currently trading at a P/E of 5-7, whereas
most companies in the IT Sector would be trading at a P/E in
excess of 20-30.
The Price Earnings Ratio is usually
the quickest measure of how costly the share is based on its
current performance. The numbers are also an indicator of how
soon the market expects that particular company or sector to
grow. The normal market sentiment is - Higher the P/E, the
greater would be the expectation that the company’s earnings
would grow fast.
The last year's price/earnings ratio
(P/E ratio) would be actual, while current year and forward
year price/earnings ratio (P/E ratio) would be estimates, but
in each case, the "P" in the equation is the current price.
Companies that are not currently profitable (that is, ones
which have negative earnings) don't have a P/E ratio at
all.
PEG Ratio
PEG Ratio is defined as a
stock's P/E ratio divided by the forecasted growth rate of its
Earnings Per Share ("forward EPS"). As a general rule of
thumb, a stock has a PEG value less than 0.5 is considered a
very attractive buy, one between 0.5 and 1 is supposed to be a
possibly good buy, one between 1.0 and 1.5 is an opportunity
to hold on to the share if you are already invested in, and a
PEG value of 2 is an opportunity to sell. What is very
important, however, is that all this should be based on a
realistic and fairly reasonable value of "forward
EPS".
Support &
Resistance Support and Resistance are
very important Technical Analysis elements and probably the
best day trading option if you want to be on the right side of
the market.
Support is a
price level at which a stock or other security stops
falling (at least temporarily), hence the name.
Resistance is a level at which price stops rising, at
least
temporarily. Disclosure Disclosure
in Market terms means exactly what it does in normal
usage. Disclosure is letting people know about certain
details about yourself or your company. To reduce fraud
SEBI has made it compulsory for many people to disclose
their holdings, e.g. a Stock Analyst who is recommending
a stock might also be holding the same stock himself and
would hence gain from extra buying into the stock –
hence the Analyst is supposed to disclose any personal
or business interest he might have in the Stock he is
discussing. Similarly companies going in for an IPO
would be needed to disclose potential risks to business
so that people who are thinking about investing would be
aware of what the risks are and can then take an
educated decision.
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